At around this time next week, we’ll probably know the results of GE15. Could BN claim a comfortable victory? Will Anwar finally become the Malaysian prime minister? As of this moment, who knows.
From the ashes of GE14, UMNO has gone from strength to strength, initially colluding with PAS in the name of “ummah” and then ditching the islamist party after they felt that they are strong enough to go for it alone. I’m not sure whether Malaysians have a really short memory or they have this tendency for self-destruction because a majority of them keep voting in BN in the last 3 state elections. Did they not remember how much money Najib and Zahid have stolen from the country, from you and me all these years? Do they even care that we will all be paying for Najib's 1MDB crimes until the next generation? I guess some of them don't.
I honestly thought PPBM or Bersatu’s fate were sealed when they failed to establish an electoral pact with BN. And then came PAS to their rescue when they agreed to join the band of traitors to create Perikatan Nasional. In the west coast where the PAS brand is toxic, they campaigned and contested under the PN flag. On the east coast, at their safe seats, they go with PAS’ banner. A cunning but shrewd move I must say and many will be fooled by this ploy. If the state elections are anything to go by, PN actually presented themselves as a credible alternative to the corrupt BN. Not everyone who hates BN is willing to vote for PH so PN is another choice for them.
What can I say about Pakatan Harapan? Post Sheraton move, Before Rafizi Ramli came out of political retirement, the pact was in disarray and disjointed. They were fighting each other, throwing insults and barbs that were definitely not helping their cause. Rafizi came back, won the PKR VP seat, got into action with a clear plan and strategy and pulled the coalition together. Now he’s hot on the campaign trail, attacking BN and PN, exposing scandal after scandal perpetrated by the incumbent. If PH were to ever win this election, they can thank this messiah from Kemaman.
And what about Mahathir and his ilks? He launched yet another race-based party, tried to cooperate with PH at the last hour but failed and now works with a bunch of racists from ISMA to contest in GE15. While I’m not so sure about Bersatu’s demise, I can say for sure this will be Mahathir’s final show in Malaysian politics and he will ride into the sunset when his fledgling party loses every seat that they contested.
As for my prediction, I’m gonna say it will be very tight. There’s a few new variables that will make this election hard to predict the outcome. There’s Undi 18 and then automatic voter registration. The state elections were not a good barometer of youngsters' preferences and which party they lean into since the voter turnout was rather low. While they can be media, especially social media savvy, they could also be easily duped by mass propaganda or disinformation campaigns. Honestly they could go either way and it’s really hard to tell before the election. As for automatic voters registration, the newly registered voters could come out and vote in droves for the first time or they simply won't bother.
I predict no single coalition of the big three (BN, PH and PN) will gather enough seats to pass the magic 112 number but BN will still manage to form a government with help from their old BN partner in Sarawak, GPS. In this nightmare scenario, Zahid Hamidi will become prime minister and all his ongoing criminal cases will be mysteriously dropped and the country will go to the dogs.
Another possible scenario is BN plus GPS still won’t have enough seats to form a government but PAS will stab Bersatu at the back and collude with UMNO to form the next government in exchange for ministerial and GLC posts and the country will still burn to the ground.
Of course, my dream scenario is for PH to win a simple majority and bring this country out of the doldrums. But I am a realist and realistically, too many of the electorate are still easily manipulated, emotional especially when it comes to race and religion. Throw in political apathy and you have the perfect recipe for conservatives (read BN & PN) to gain inroad into the malay heartland. Just winning the majority of the seriously gerry-mandered urban seats will not be enough for PH. Undi 18 could still make or break PH chances though. They could make an educated decision or they would simply reflect the voting trends of the older generation.
Looking back, I made the same grim prediction before the surprise GE14 result. I dearly hope I will be proven wrong once again this time round. I pray for the citizens of this country to make the right decision next week. As for me, I will still be doing the 12 hours, 1,000KM round trip to my hometown to vote, despite the dire prospect of voting in a PAS stronghold. If PH makes strong gains in Kelantan, I might not change my voting location to Selangor yet. If not, I might as well become a Semenyih voter next time because all hope is lost with that state. Why even bother.
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